The top seeds held serve in the top half, but will it be the same on the bottom half? Before we get going, here are the ground rules again.
- As we have been preaching all season (big thanks to Lambeth Field writer brodonnell), it is a 16 team bracket with each conference having an automatic qualifier plus 5 at-large selections.
- They are seeded by the BCS rankings. Hey they got to be good for something!
- First round and Quarterfinal games are played at the higher-seed sites.
- We got help from National Sport Ranking, who run simulations of over 50 sports and teams from decades worth of teams.
- Each matchup was simulated a minimum of 25 times with the later rounds simulated up to 100 times.
- Then each team was put into a bracket formation and simulated to generate box scores consistent to the previous simulation results.
- The stories generated are a representation of how the game would play out based on the box scores.
PLEASE NOTE: This is for informational purposes only and on any given Saturday, any team can win. But with the number of games simulated, we have a very good understanding how it would play out.
So lets look at the bottom half of the first round.
#3 TCU 34, #14 Connecticut 16
You have to give it to UCONN, they showed up for this game, but after a rushing touchdown of a Dalton interception, they had to settle for field goals the rest of the game. That opened the door for Andy and company to just plug away at the Huskies’ defense, rushing for 3 touchdowns and passing for 1 more, including the one that put the game out of reach, a 52 yard pass from Dalton to Josh Boyce. The key stat of the game was UCONN had 7 penalties for 91 yards, including 4 personal fouls, while the Frogs had 0 penalties on the day.
#6 OSU 8, #11 LSU 3
In a game that was played in a Big Ten stadium, it had a purely SEC defensive feel to it. The snow was falling and the yards were hard to come by as the defenses hunkered down, and at the half LSU had a 3-0 lead. In the second half was more of the same, but Ohio State looked to move the ball a little bit better, but ended up missing 2 field goals from short rang. Finally Pryor took it upon him self, scoring the games only touchdown on an option play from 7 yards out. With the confidence in the kicker down, Pryor set up in shotgun and ran it up the gut on the two point conversion, which made it 8-3, which ended up being the game winner.
#10 Boise State 31, #7 Oklahoma 25, OT
This game was a rematch of the classic 2007 Fiesta Bowl, and had the same feel to it as the game winded down. Both Landry Jones (288 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT) and Kellen Moore (289 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) were decent, but with the game tied at 25-25, Jones threw his second interception in the endzone to stop OU’s final drive and send it into OT. The Sooners got the ball first DeMarco Murray (102 yards, TD) fumbled the ball on the second play, which ended that possession. On the first play from scrimage, Doug Martin rushed 25 yards for a touchdown, ending the game 31-25.
#2 Oregon 53, #15 Miami (OH) 19
Oregon picked up right where they left off at the end of the regular season with Darron Thomas (296 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) and LaMichel James (156 yards, 2 TD) leading the way. By the time the dust settled, the Ducks had 656 yards of total offensive, including 360 yards on the ground. It was a very sloppy game, with 18 total penalties combined, but it didn’t do much to deter Oregon from advancing to the second round.